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| Image: Jens Richter |
So shortly before Hawaii I'm again interested in which German has the best chance of getting on the podium or even winning.
The statistics of the race speak clearly for Sebastian Kienle. Why?
1. Because every German winner so far has been an above-average cyclist, also referred to by the Americans as an "overbiker".
Thomas Hellriegel came in second in 1995 and 1996, after having clocked out for 18 minutes on the bike. In 1997 it finally works with victory.
Normann Stadler won the race in 2004 and he also gained a huge lead on the bike. In 2006 he used this tactic again and won the race again.
Faris as Sultan leads the race almost from the beginning with his victory in 2005 and does not give up his lead anymore.
2. According to this (this is where it gets interesting) a German only wins the race if a German gets off the bike first.
It doesn't have to be a guarantee of victory. But statistically it was the only winning option so far.
But why does that speak for Sebastian Kienle? In my opinion, this has a lot to do with the racing strategy of the individual athletes. It is true that Andreas Raelert has shown in the past that he is good at cycling. However, he finds it difficult to drive such a risky strategy in Hawaii because he is too good a runner for that. Possibly a weakness in certain racing constellations. He doesn't have to put everything on one card when cycling because he can still bet on his strong marathon at the back.
A Sebastian Kienle, however, has little choice but to escape forwards on the bike, so he wants to win. He is a good runner, but in direct comparison to an Alexander or Raelert on the marathon route almost no chance.
But that doesn't have to be a reason why he couldn't win. All the German winners before him were (with all due respect) rather “slower” runners, but were able to compensate for this with a terrific bike split.
In order to increase Kienle's chances, two other factors are required. His distance after swimming should not be too great. The wind should blow hard. The past of the race has shown several times that this plays into the cards for strong cyclists for a solo escape.
Nevertheless, I would like to grant all athletes victory, including one of the Raelert brothers, of course, even if they violate the statistics 😉
sunny sunday!
krelli
I could imagine or would wish that Andreas and Michael Raelert would let the cat out of the bag on the bike this year and simply put everything on one card.
Both can put a lot of pressure on and the season planning could also fit this year.
But Timo Bracht should not be underestimated this year either. It has gained a lot in the water.
In any case, it will be immensely exciting this year, as the density has rarely been that great. I say that every year before Hawaii but this year 10 guys could win the race ...
Andreas and Michael Raelert, Crowie, Jacobs, Potts, Kienle, Bracht, Mc Cormack, Henning, O'Donnel ...